Car electricization is deep, vehicle pile construction is lagging, policy support is not diminished, and the development of the charging industry is firmly optimistic.
Nov 02, 2018
Car electricization is deep, vehicle pile construction is lagging, policy support is not reduced, and three-wheel power drive electric pile development
First, the international car enterprises are turning and the domestic sales growth rate remains high, indicating the irreversible trend of car electrification. The industry has broken through the 0-1% incubation period and entered the high-speed growth period of 1% to 10%. Second, China The construction speed of charging piles still lags behind the growth of vehicle ownership. The pile-to-pile ratio is 8:1 and 3.35:1 respectively, and it is expanding. The gap between the piles and piles is huge. The public charging piles, especially the DC fast-filled piles, need to be accelerated. Third, the central and local government plans and supports parallel, and the industry enters the development and harvest period.
Industry differentiation, the focus is tilted from construction to operation, the utilization rate of electric piles is rising, and the operating prospects are good.
The hardware profit margin in the charging pile industry chain has shown a downward trend, and since 2014, the operation has gradually formed a pattern of coexistence of multiple operating entities, but the concentration of operators is very high, CR5 is as high as 88%. At present, with the growth of the number of electric vehicles, the charging capacity and usage rate of public piles have been greatly improved. It is expected that the annual charging capacity will reach 3 billion degrees in 2018, and the average charging time per pin will be close to one hour. Industry flexibility is expected.
Structural opportunities emerge, operating vehicle electrification welcomes tens of billions of service markets
At this stage, the operating service fee contributes to the main revenue, and more business models are rapidly evolving. As the charging power increases, the break-even point of the single pile moves down. It is estimated that the equilibrium points of the daily charging of the fast-filled piles of 30kw and 120kw are 1.3 and 0.9 hours respectively. The electrification trend of operating vehicles such as buses and taxis is clear, while the gap between operating vehicles and fast-filling piles is large, and the structural opportunities are clear. Based on the electrification trend of the operating vehicle and the charging standard for charging service fees, we estimate that the market space in 2020 is expected to reach 430.0-76.53 billion yuan. The leading enterprises with wide layout, good site selection and excellent technology will benefit in the future. In addition, with the acceleration of the industry interconnection process, charging is more convenient, and private car owners are more difficult to build private piles, and private car owners are also expected to become public charging.
Firmly optimistic about the development of the charging industry
In the past few years, due to uncertain charging requirements, low efficiency of charging piles, unclear profitability of charging operations, and lack of effective integration in the industry, it is widely believed that the charging pile industry is difficult to earn and the development prospects are worrisome. We believe that: First, the trend of automotive electrification is clear, and the demand for charging is greatly increased. Second, the charging power is increased, and the cost recovery is difficult; the operating vehicle is electrified, the operator charges the charging service fee to protect the income; and third, the industry is interconnected. The prospect of public fast charging is good.
Source: Financial website