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Concerns | What is the new energy vehicle after the subsidy is gradually retreating and the technical bottleneck is “weaning”?
Dec 13, 2018

Entering the autumn and winter, air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding areas has once again become the focus of public attention.Changing to a new energy-saving, environmentally-friendly, and economical energy vehicle has become a fashion choice for urban people to be “green”.However, government subsidies began to gradually decrease, and will be completely abolished in 2020. The “short board” of technology such as difficulty in charging and short battery life is highlighted, and another part of consumers are waiting to wait and see.The subsidy is gradually receding, the technology is "blocking the road" is still there, can the new energy vehicles continue to "fire"? Recently, the reporter conducted an interview.

 

Undertake a new mission to drive the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry

 

Starting from the "debut", new energy vehicles have been given preferential treatment, exemption from taxation and considerable government subsidies, which has become an important reason for many car owners to change cars.At the same time, relying on the development of new energy vehicles to achieve beyond, it also carries the hope of the future of China's auto industry.

 

From the perspective of sales volume, new energy vehicles live up to expectations: in the first half of 2018, China's new energy vehicle production and sales and possession accounted for half of the global market, and eight auto brands such as BYD and Beiqi New Energy entered the top 20 global new energy vehicle brand sales. name.At the same time, a group of complete vehicle and power battery backbone enterprises thrive, and the new forces of building cars have risen rapidly.

 

"China's mobile phones and computers have high production and sales volume, but they are not the first to lead us. Unlike electric vehicles, this is China's first successful global introduction of large-scale civilian high-tech consumer goods." State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University Director and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Ouyang Minggao said that in the case of batteries, in 2017, among the top ten battery manufacturers in the world, China accounted for 7 and supplied to the world.

 

Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD Co., Ltd. believes that China's new energy vehicle market is shifting from a policy-driven to a “policy + market” dual drive.

 

"China's new energy automobile industry is in a critical stage of transition from the introduction period to the growth stage, occupying a pivotal position in the global industrial system, leading and accelerating the global automotive electrification process." Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that entering a new era China's new energy automobile industry bears a new mission to drive the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry.

 

Difficulty in charging, short battery life, how to make consumers worry about the technical problems

 

But the technology "blocking the tiger" is still in sight.

 

"It takes only 5 minutes to refuel the petrol car, but it takes 15 minutes to charge the battery at least." This is why Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management, is holding a wait-and-see attitude toward new energy vehicles. "If the car breaks down, The electricity can only be stopped on the road, even if the rescue comes over half an hour, the next time may not dare to go out."

 

As hesitant as Li Daokui, there is Zhang Xinyu.Zhang Xinyu, who lives in Daxing District, Beijing, works in a large foreign company in Guoyang, Chaoyang District. The daily commute distance of nearly 60 kilometers makes the car just needed.The new energy vehicle is fully charged and can only travel more than 200 kilometers, which means that he must charge once every two or three days.However, the parking spaces in the residential area are temporarily rented, and it is impossible to install fixed charging piles. The company's charging parking space is always full.This made Zhang Xinyu only worry, spent a high cost, rented a used car from a friend.

 

Huang Danhua, former deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, listed the “difficulties in charging” that she had discovered in her previous research: the total amount of charging facilities is insufficient and the utilization rate is low; the construction of charging piles involves many links and coordination is difficult; information and data interconnection The degree of interoperability is not high enough, and the payment settlement interconnection between operators has not been realized.

 

The limited cruising range, coupled with the difficulty of charging, has become the most realistic problem that plagues users.This short board is not solved. Even if there is the concept of environmental protection, energy saving and high technology, it is difficult for new energy vehicles to really enter the users."Can the industry grow and develop, and ultimately consumers have the final say. Consumers don't buy it, don't pay for it, and even the best technology is useless." Li Daokui said.

 

These issues have also attracted the attention of relevant departments.In terms of core technologies such as batteries, Huang Wei, deputy director of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said that in the future, R&D efforts will be further strengthened, and research and development activities on individual technologies and vehicle technologies should be strengthened.In the relevant supporting facilities such as charging piles, Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that it is necessary to give full play to the role of inter-ministerial joint meetings, strengthen inter-departmental collaboration, and focus on solving the outstanding problems of charging piles into the community and local protection.These measures have also given consumers a reassurance from the policy level.

 

"Inflection point" has come, the key is "turning" to where

 

According to the policy, financial subsidies that are highly valued by consumers and car companies will be completely eliminated in 2020.Now subsidies are beginning to gradually decrease. Wang Chuanfu judges that this year is the "turning point" of China's new energy vehicles.The question is where to “turn”? What about the new energy car after “weaning”?

 

“After the financial subsidies are completely withdrawn in 2020, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles may increase from 50% to 40% per year now. Will this 'Kang' be too steep?” Su Bo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology There are concerns about this.

 

“After the subsidy policy is withdrawn, the market may experience a cliff-like decline. It is recommended to speed up the introduction of the continuation policy of the use link to offset the impact of the withdrawal of the subsidy policy.” Fang Aiqing, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, suggested that the policy of innovative consumption should be taken as the focus. Promote the healthy development of the industry.

 

In response to this problem, Liu Wei, deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance, said that the subsidy policy will continue to adhere to the policy orientation of “supporting and supporting the strong” with relevant departments, adjust and improve the subsidy technical standards, and leave a transition period for enterprises.In addition, we will continue to improve other relevant policy measures with reference to the experience of promoting new energy vehicles in countries such as the United States and Germany.

 

However, the gradual cancellation of government subsidies does not seem to affect the enthusiasm of some places to develop new energy vehicles.According to statistics, the capacity of the newly-opened new energy vehicles exceeds 20 million, which is 10 times that of the national plan to reach 2 million in 2020.

 

This may create new problems.

 

"A new round of overcapacity is taking shape," Su Bo said.

 

Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, provided a set of data: more than 250 enterprises in China have qualifications for new energy vehicle production. In 2017, only 18 of them produced more than 10,000 vehicles, and more than 70 productions were zero. “Small, scattered, chaotic” The phenomenon is outstanding.

 

In order to curb the behavior of blindly attracting investment and construction in some places, the country has suspended the approval of new pure electric vehicle enterprise investment projects since June 2017.According to Lin Nianxiu, the regulations on investment management of the automobile industry are being urgently formulated. The new regulations will further tighten the conditions for project access, clarify management responsibilities, strengthen post-event supervision, prevent local blind new enterprises and expand production capacity, thus guiding new The energy automobile industry is developing healthily.


Source: Guangming Daily